Assessing my spring migration predictions

Back on Feb. 19, TWiB published a list of expected arrival dates.

A Palm Warbler on April 29. Photo by Bob Dolgan.

In case you missed it, there was a TWiB piece on February 19 called “Spring arrival dates for common birds.” It forecast when migratory birds, mostly Passerines, would arrive back to a latitude from about Chicago to Detroit to Cleveland. The predictions were compiled from a number of sources, as well as the author’s own observations. Inspiration for this post came from Thomas Bewick’s A History of British Birds, which was published in 1797 and 1804. It was a forerunner to today’s field guides and featured magnificent woodcuts done by Bewick. You can view and handle the woodcuts in-person at the Newberry Library.

These dates were all approximations, mostly contingent on weather patterns. And in this mild spring, we’ve had some unusual ones. Here are the results:

Forecast dates with actual dates handwritten in the margin.

All of them are very early! The only one that was right on time was Piping Plover.

A few comments:

• How many gnats are even out on April 8? It turns out, quite a few, at least this year. A single Blue-Gray Gnatcatcher recorded at Chicago’s Montrose Point on that date, which strikes me as incredibly early.

• A Spotted Sandpiper was recorded on April 14, which is bonkers early.

• A Barn Swallow was seen on April 12 at Montrose Point, but not at my local inland patch until April 26.

• What about the vaguely worded “warblers?” Of course, some arrive much earlier and one may winter here (the Yellow-rumped). I chose April 27 as the date, when there were more than just the early arriving species around.*

• An Olive-sided Flycatcher was seen on May 1 at Montrose Point.

How has spring migration been where you are? Are you keeping track of dates for any species?

*Thomas Bewick, in his original chart, sometimes just named birds by group rather than individual species.